Legal uncertainty keeps tariffs in the risk mix, even when markets feel calm. Capital markets, taxes, and your financial planFebruary 25, 2026 In the fall, shoppers helped propel the fastest quarterly U.S. economic growth in two years, federal government data in December showed. To be sure, the stock market has climbed in recent weeks, despite some turmoil. The performance marked the latest move in topsy-turvy markets — and that rollercoaster may very well continue, some analysts told ABC News. If you’re not sure which investments are right for you, please request advice, for example from our financial advisers.
- Legal uncertainty keeps tariffs in the risk mix, even when markets feel calm.
- The average correction (10%-20% decline) lasts 17 days but any single episode can be shorter—or longer—depending on whether the decline reflects temporary sentiment shifts or deeper economic stress.
- However, the average daily performance of all six indices turns from positive to negative when weighted by daily media coverage, as illustrated in Figure 2.
- Corrections occur often enough that long-term investors generally treat them as part of the market’s regular rhythm rather than as rare events.
- Typical warning signs leading to a pullback in the stock market include overvalued stock prices, rising interest rates, and increasing economic uncertainty.
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Investors instead track high-frequency alternative data to gauge consumer resilience amid gaps in official reporting. The prior shutdown already delayed key releases—such as inflation data, retail sales, housing activity and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report—and the agency announced it will delay its January employment report. Government shutdown risk returned as a potential volatility catalyst as well. Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist, U.S. Policy has played a supporting role in improving expectations for growth and earnings.
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Rather than focusing on fear-driven narratives, many investors have emphasized earnings momentum and the staying power of consumer demand. 1 Investors watched the S&P 500 narrowly avoid a bear market last April and then regain footing as fundamentals reasserted themselves. With changes to taxes and interest rates, it’s a good time to meet with a wealth advisor.
John Canavan, a U.S. lead analyst at Oxford Economics, acknowledged a risk of elevated volatility but he forecasted an uptick in the major stock indexes over the course of this year. Kenwell, of eToro, downplayed the risk posed by geopolitical unrest or AI, saying potential volatility could arise from unanticipated economic developments. Many other stocks turned higher late last week, including companies in the energy and industrial sector, according to Kenwell. Some tech giants, meanwhile, revealed plans for massive investments in AI. “There’s a worry that AI will eventually disrupt those businesses,” Bret Kenwell, an investing analyst at eToro, told ABC News.
US and Asia stocks slide as AI jitters persist
Corporate America continues to deliver strong earnings, so, in my opinion, the only way a potential sell-off turns into a bear market is if the weakness in the job market sparks an economic recession. Bear markets (measured by peak-to-trough declines of 20% or more) are rarer but still happen every six years or so. Stock market sell-offs can be unsettling, but they are the price investors pay for the opportunity to earn significant returns over the long term.
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Tariffs and policy shifts remain headline risks
Get real-time market data, news, and live updates on major indices like the Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P500. Typical warning signs leading to a pullback in the stock market include overvalued stock prices, rising interest rates, and increasing economic uncertainty. Recoveries also vary because markets often “price in” new information before it appears in lagging economic data, and investor confidence can return gradually as uncertainty clears. “New all-time stock market highs are often followed by more all-time highs,” he points out. That combination has helped support risk appetite, even as unresolved policy and economic questions still shape daily market moves. Mixed signals in economic data have also left markets uneven, some analysts added.
Nvidia, which supplies the world’s best data center chips for AI development, has enjoyed a twelvefold increase in its stock price since the start of 2023, catapulting its market capitalization from $360 billion to a whopping $4.6 trillion. President Donald Trump has been in office during three major stock market drawdowns. Bond investments are also subject to BraveWords: Tom Morello on Randy Rhoads interest rate risk such that when interest rates rise, the prices of bonds can decrease, and the investor can lose principal value if the investment is sold prior to maturity. The value of investments fluctuates and investors can lose some or all of their principal.